Canadian home sales fall in April

Ottawa, ON, May 15, 2018 – Statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show national home sales fell from March to April 2018.

Highlights:

• National home sales fell 2.9% from March to April.
• Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was down 13.9% from April 2017.
• The number of newly listed homes declined 4.8% from March to April.
• The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) in April was up 1.5% year-over-year (y-o-y).
• The national average sale price declined by 11.3% y-o-y in April.

National home sales via Canadian MLS® Systems declined by 2.9% in April 2018 to the lowest level in more than five years (Chart A). About 60% of all local housing markets reported fewer sales, led by the Fraser Valley, Calgary, Ottawa and Montreal.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was down 13.9% compared to April of last year and hit a seven-year low for the month. It also stood 6.9% below the 10-year average for the month. Activity was below year-ago levels in about 60% of all local markets, led overwhelmingly by the Lower Mainland of British Columbia and by markets in and around Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) region.

“The stress-test that came into effect this year for homebuyers with more than a twenty percent down payment continued to cast its shadow over sales activity in April,” said CREA President Barb Sukkau. “Its impact on housing markets varies by region,” she added. “A professional REALTOR® is your best source for information and guidance in negotiations to purchase or sell a home during these changing times,” said Sukkau.

“This year’s new stress test has lowered sales activity and destabilized market balance for housing markets in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador Provinces,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “This is exactly the type of collateral damage that CREA warned the government about. As provinces whose economic prospects have faced difficulties because they are closely tied to those of natural resources, it is puzzling that the government would describe the effect of its new policy as intended consequences.”

The number of newly listed homes declined 4.8% in April. Having reached a nine-year low for the month, new listings stood 12% below the 10-year monthly moving average.

With sales having fallen by less than new listings, the national sales-to-new listings ratio firmed slightly to 53.7% in April compared to 52.6% in March. The long-term average for the measure is 53.4%.

A national sales-to-new listings ratio of between 40% and 60% is generally consistent with a balanced national housing market, with readings below and above this range indicating buyers’ and sellers’ markets respectively; however, the range consistent with balanced market conditions varies at the local market level.

For that reason, considering the degree and duration that market balance readings are above or below their long-term average is a better way of gauging whether local housing market conditions favour buyers or sellers. Market balance measures that are within one standard deviation of their long-term average are generally consistent with balanced market conditions.

Based on a comparison of the sales-to-new listings ratio with its long-term average, about 60% of all local markets were in balanced market territory in April 2018.

The number of months of inventory is another important measure for the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents how long it would take to liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

There were 5.6 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of April 2018, the highest level since September 2015. The long-term average for the measure is 5.2 months.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) was up 1.5% y-o-y in April 2018. This marks one full year of decelerating y-o-y gains. It was also the smallest y-o-y increase since October 2009. (Chart B)

Decelerating y-o-y home price gains largely reflect trends among GGH housing markets tracked by the index. Home prices in the region have stabilized and have begun trending higher on a monthly basis; however, rapid price gains recorded one year ago have contributed to deteriorating y-o-y price comparisons.

Apartment units again posted the largest y-o-y price gains in April (+14.7%), followed by townhouse/row units (+6.5%). By contrast, one-storey and two-storey single family home prices were down (-1.1% and -4.8% y-o-y respectively).

With this release, housing market coverage for MLS® HPI now includes Barrie and District. Benchmark home prices in April were up from year-ago levels in 9 of the 15 markets tracked by the index.

Composite benchmark home prices in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia continue to trend upward after having dipped briefly in the second half of 2016 (Greater Vancouver (GVA): +14.3% y-o-y; Fraser Valley: +22.7% y-o-y). Apartment and townhouse/row units have been largely driving this regional trend while single family home prices in the GVA have stabilized. In the Fraser Valley, single family home prices have now also begun to rise.

Benchmark home prices continued to rise by about 14% on a y-o-y basis in Victoria and by about 20% elsewhere on Vancouver Island.

Within the GGH region, price gains have slowed considerably on a y-o-y basis but remain above year-ago levels in Guelph (+5.9%). By contrast, home prices in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Oakville-Milton and Barrie and District were down from where they stood one year earlier (GTA: -5.2% y-o-y; Oakville-Milton: -8.7% y-o-y; Barrie and District: -8.4% y-o-y). This reflects rapid price gains recorded one year ago and masks recent month-over-month price gains in these markets.

Calgary and Edmonton benchmark home prices were again little changed on a y-o-y basis (Calgary: +0.1% y-o-y; Edmonton: -0.9% y-o-y), while prices in Regina and Saskatoon remained down from year-ago levels (-6.5% y-o-y and -3.4% y-o-y, respectively).

Benchmark home prices rose by 8.4% y-o-y in Ottawa (led by a 9.4% increase in two-storey single family home prices), by 6.3% in Greater Montreal (led by a 7.3% increase in two-storey single family home prices) and by 4.2% in Greater Moncton (led by a 5.6% increase in one-storey single family home prices). (Table 1)

The MLS® HPI provides the best way of gauging price trends because average price trends are strongly distorted by changes in the mix of sales activity from one month to the next.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in April 2018 was just over $495,000, down 11.3% from one year earlier.

The national average price is heavily skewed by sales in the GVA and GTA, two of Canada’s most active and expensive markets. Excluding these two markets from calculations cuts more than $109,000 from the national average price to just under $386,100 and trims the y-o-y decline to 4.1%.

– 30 –

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national sales information from MLS® Systems from the previous month. 

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types. 

MLS® Systems are co-operative marketing systems used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale. 

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 125,000 REALTORS® working through some 90 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further information can be found at http://crea.ca/statistics.

For more information, please contact:

Pierre Leduc, Media Relations
The Canadian Real Estate Association
Tel.: 613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460
E-mail: pleduc@crea.ca

Canadian home sales improve slightly in March

Ottawa, ON, April 13, 2018 – Statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show national home sales edged higher from February to March 2018.

Highlights:

• National home sales inched up 1.3% from February to March.
• Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was down 22.7% from last year’s all-time March record.
• The number of newly listed homes rose 3.3% from February to March.
• The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) in March was up 4.6% year-over-year (y-o-y).
• The national average sale price declined by 10.4% y-o-y in March.

Home sales via Canadian MLS® Systems edged up 1.3 % from February to March 2018. Despite having improved marginally in March, national sales activity in the first quarter slid to the lowest quarterly level since the first quarter of 2014.

March sales were up from the previous month in over half of all local housing markets, led by Ottawa and Montreal. Monthly sales gains were offset by declines in B.C.’s Lower Mainland, the Okanagan Region, Chilliwack, Calgary and Edmonton.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was down 22.7% from record activity logged for March last year and marked a four-year low for the month. It also stood 7% below the 10-year average for the month. Activity came in below year-ago levels in more than 80% of all local markets, including every major urban centre except Montreal and Ottawa. The vast majority of year-over-year declines were well into double digits.

“Government policy changes have made home buyers and sellers increasingly uncertain about the outlook for home prices,” said CREA President Andrew Peck. “The extent to which these changes have impacted housing market sentiment varies by region,” he added. “A professional REALTOR® is your best source for information and guidance in negotiations to purchase or sell a home during these changing times,” said Peck.

“Recent changes to mortgage regulations are fueling demand for lower priced homes while shrinking the pool of qualified buyers for higher-priced homes,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “Given their limited supply, the shift of demand into lower price segments is causing those sale prices to climb. As a result, ‘affordably priced’ homes are becoming less affordable while mortgage financing for higher priced homes remains out of reach of many aspiring move-up homebuyers.”

The number of newly listed homes rose 3.3% in March. However, new listings have still not recovered from the 21.1% plunge recorded between December 2017 and January 2018 – the largest month-over-month decline on record by a large margin. With sales up by less than new listings in March, the national sales-to-new listings ratio eased to 53% in March. The long-term average for the measure is 53.4%.

A national sales-to-new listings ratio of between 40% and 60% is generally consistent with a balanced national housing market, with readings below and above this range indicating buyers’ and sellers’ markets respectively. That said, the range consistent with balanced market conditions varies among local markets.

For that reason, considering the degree and duration that market balance readings are above or below their long-term average is a better way of gauging whether local housing market conditions favour buyers or sellers. Market balance measures that are within one standard deviation of the long-term average are generally consistent with balanced market conditions.

A national sales-to-new listings ratio of between 40% and 60% is generally consistent with a balanced national housing market, with readings below and above this range indicating buyers’ and sellers’ markets respectively. That said, the balanced range can vary among local markets.

For that reason, considering the degree and duration that market balance is above or below its long-term average is a better way of gauging whether local housing market conditions favour buyers or sellers. Market balance measures that are within one standard deviation of the long-term average are generally consistent with balanced market conditions.

Based on a comparison of the sales-to-new listings ratio with its long-term average, more than 60% of all local markets were in balanced market territory in March 2018.

The number of months of inventory is another important measure for the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents how long it would take to liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

There were 5.3 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of February 2018 – the highest level in two-and-a-half years and in line with the long-term average of 5.2 months.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI rose 4.6% y-o-y in March 2018. This was the 11^th consecutive deceleration in y-o-y gains, continuing a trend that began last spring. It was also the smallest y-o-y increase since December 2013.

Slowing y-o-y home price growth largely reflects trends among Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) housing markets tracked by the index. Although home prices in the region have stabilized or begun to show tentative signs of moving higher in recent months, y-o-y comparisons may deteriorate further due to rapid price gains one year ago.

Apartment units again posted the largest y-o-y price gains in January (+17.8%), followed by townhouse/row units (+9.4%), and one-storey single family homes (+1.3%). As expected, two-storey single family home prices were down (-2%) from a year ago. Despite having stabilized over the second half of last year, y-o-y declines for single family home prices may persist over the first half of 2018.

As of this release, housing market coverage for the MLS® HPI now includes Edmonton. Benchmark home prices in March were up from year-ago levels in 9 of the 14 markets tracked by the index.

Composite benchmark home prices in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia continue to trend upward after having dipped briefly during the second half of 2016 (Greater Vancouver (GVA): +16.1% y-o-y; Fraser Valley: +24.4% y-o-y). Apartment and townhouse/row units have been driving this regional trend in recent months while single family home prices in the GVA have held steady. In the Fraser Valley, single family home prices have also begun to rise.

Benchmark home prices continued to rise by about 15% on a y-o-y basis in Victoria and by about 20% elsewhere on Vancouver Island.

Within the GGH region, price gains have slowed considerably on a y-o-y basis but remain above year-ago levels in Guelph (+7.5%). Meanwhile home prices in the GTA and Oakville-Milton were down in March compared to one year earlier (GTA: -1.5% y-o-y; Oakville-Milton: -7.1% y-o-y). These declines largely reflect price trends one year ago and mask evidence that home prices in the region have begun trending higher.

Calgary and Edmonton benchmark home prices were little changed on a y-o-y basis (Calgary: +0.3% y-o-y; Edmonton: -0.5% y-o-y), while prices in Regina and Saskatoon remained down from year-ago levels (-4.6% y-o-y and -3.4% y-o-y, respectively).

Benchmark home prices rose by 7.7% y-o-y in Ottawa (led by an 8.6% increase in two-storey single family home prices), by 6.2% in Greater Montreal (led by a 7.4% increase in two-storey single family home prices) and by 4.9% in Greater Moncton (led by a 6.3% increase in one-storey single family home prices). (Table 1)

The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) provides the best way of gauging price trends because average price trends are strongly distorted by changes in the mix of sales activity from one month to the next.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in March 2018 was just over $491,000, down 10.4% from one year earlier.

The national average price is heavily skewed by sales in the GVA and GTA, two of Canada’s most active and expensive markets. Excluding these two markets from calculations cuts almost $108,000 from the national average price, reducing it to $383,000 and trimming the y-o-y decline to just 2%.

– 30 –

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national sales information from MLS® Systems from the previous month. 

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types. 

MLS® Systems are co-operative marketing systems used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale. 

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 120,000 REALTORS® working through some 90 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further information can be found at http://crea.ca/statistics.

For more information, please contact:

Pierre Leduc, Media Relations
The Canadian Real Estate Association
Tel.: 613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460
E-mail: pleduc@crea.ca

Canadian home sales fall further in February

Ottawa, ON, March 15, 2018 – Statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show national home sales declined further in February 2018.

Highlights:

• National home sales declined by 6.5% from January to February.
• Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was down 16.9% year-over-year (y-o-y) in February.
• The number of newly listed homes recovered by 8.1% from January to February.
• The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) in February was up 6.9% y-o-y.
• The national average sale price declined by 5% y-o-y in February.

Home sales via Canadian MLS® Systems were down 6.5% in February. This marks the second consecutive monthly decline following the record set in December 2017 and the lowest reading in nearly five years.

February sales were down from the previous month in almost three-quarters of all local housing markets, with large monthly declines in and around Greater Vancouver (GVA) and Greater Toronto (GTA).

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was down 16.9% year-over-year (y-o-y) and hit

a five-year low for the month of February. Sales also stood 7% below the 10-year average for the month of February. Sales activity came in below year-ago levels in 80% of all local markets in February, including those nearby and within Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) region.

“Sales activity is down in many, but not all, housing markets compared to the end of last year, and varies depending on price range, location and property type,” said CREA President Andrew Peck. “All real estate is local,” he added. “A professional REALTOR® is your best source for information and guidance in negotiations to purchase or sell a home during these changing times,” said Peck.

“The drop off in sales activity following the record-breaking peak late last year confirms that many homebuyers moved purchase decisions forward late last year before tighter mortgage rules took effect in January,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “Momentum for home sales activity going into the second quarter is also likely to weighed down by housing market uncertainty in British Columbia, where new housing polices were introduced toward the end of February.”

The number of newly listed homes recovered by 8.1% in February following a plunge of more than 20% in January. Despite the monthly increase in February, new listings nationally were still lower than monthly levels recorded in every month last year except January, and came in 6.4% below the 10-year monthly average and 14.6% below the peak reached in December 2017.

New supply was up in about three-quarters of local markets. The monthly increase was led by B.C.’s Lower Mainland, the GTA, Ottawa and Montreal; despite the monthly rise in new supply, these markets remain balanced or continue to favour sellers.

With sales down and new listings up in February, the national sales-to-new listings ratio eased to 55% compared to 63.7% in January. This returned the ratio close to where it was during the second half of last year.

A national sales-to-new listings ratio of between 40% and 60% is generally consistent with a balanced national housing market, with readings below and above this range indicating buyers’ and sellers’ markets respectively. That said, the balanced range can vary among local markets.

For that reason, considering the degree and duration that market balance is above or below its long-term average is a better way of gauging whether local housing market conditions favour buyers or sellers. Market balance measures that are within one standard deviation of the long-term average are generally consistent with balanced market conditions.

Based on a comparison of the sales-to-new listings ratio with its long-term average, almost three-quarters of all local markets were in balanced market territory in February 2018.

The number of months of inventory is another important measure for the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents how long it would take to liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

There were 5.3 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of February 2018 – the highest level in two-and-a-half years and in line with the long-term average of 5.2 months.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI rose by 6.9% y-o-y in February 2018. This was the 10th consecutive deceleration in y-o-y gains, continuing a trend that began last spring. It was also the smallest y-o-y increase since October 2015.

Slowing y-o-y home price growth largely reflects trends for GGH housing markets tracked by the index. Prices in the region have stabilized or begun to show tentative signs of moving higher in recent months; however, year-over-year comparisons are likely to continue to deteriorate further due to rapid price gains posted one year ago.

Apartment units again posted the largest y-o-y price gains in February (+20.1%), followed by townhouse/row units (+11.8%), one-storey single family homes (+3.5%), and two-storey single family homes (+1%).

Benchmark home prices in February were up from year-ago levels in 10 of the 13 markets tracked by the MLS® HPI.

Composite benchmark home prices in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia continue to trend higher after having dipped briefly during the second half of 2016 (GVA: +16.9% y-o-y; Fraser Valley: +24.1% y-o-y). Apartment units have been largely driving this regional trend in recent months.

Benchmark home prices continued to rise by about 14% on a y-o-y basis in Victoria and by about 20% elsewhere on Vancouver Island.

Price gains have slowed considerably on a y-o-y basis but remain above year-ago levels in the GTA (+3.2%) and Guelph (+9.3%). While home prices in Oakville-Milton are down slightly from one year ago (-1.9%), the monthly price trends in these markets have begun to show signs of stabilizing or tentative upward movement in recent months.

Calgary benchmark home prices were flat (+0.1%) on a y-o-y basis, while prices in Regina and Saskatoon were down from last February (-4.8% y-o-y and -3.8% y-o-y, respectively).

Benchmark home prices rose by 7.7% y-o-y in Ottawa (led by an 8.9% increase in two-storey single family home prices), by 6.1% in Greater Montreal (led by a 8.8% increase in townhouse/row unit prices) and by 5% in Greater Moncton (led by an 6.4% increase in one-storey single family home prices). (Table 1)

The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) provides the best way of gauging price trends because average price trends are prone to being strongly distorted by changes in the mix of sales activity from one month to the next.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in February 2018 was just over $494,000, down 5% from one year earlier. The decline demonstrates the impact of GTA sales activity on the national average price.

The national average price is heavily skewed by sales in the GVA and GTA, two of Canada’s most active and expensive markets. Excluding these two markets from calculations trims more than $112,000 from the national average price, reducing it to just under $382,000.

– 30 –

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national sales information from MLS® Systems from the previous month. 

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types. 

MLS® Systems are co-operative marketing systems used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale. 

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 120,000 REALTORS® working through some 90 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further information can be found at http://crea.ca/statistics.

For more information, please contact:

Pierre Leduc, Media Relations
The Canadian Real Estate Association
Tel.: 613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460
E-mail: pleduc@crea.ca